Live Betting in CSGO
Betting on csgo matches has been a common practice for some years now, like in a lot of other eSports. This has sparked the attention of traditional betting sites and nowadays we have a lot of csgo matches on real money betting sites like Betway, Bet365, Betfair and many others.
The majority of these sites provide odds that change throughout the course of the matches, making it possible to place live bets on them. The ability to place live bets on a match brings you a lot of opportunities to make profit in a much safer way than just studying the teams before the match and pray for them to win. Live betting is advised to more advanced players who really understand the game and that have previous knowledge on different betting sites.
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Study the sites
The sites I mentioned before are very popular and regulated in most countries. This means that the majority of them asks for proof of identity in order for you to bet on them. This is a very common practice and you should not bet if you are under 18. However these sites also have a lot of advantages like welcoming bonus to new players. You should check the sites in which you can get welcome bonus, withdraw and play on the other sites to get the other bonus. That way you can build a nice bankroll or at least get your money back if you lose.
Also, while you are on these sites you can check how faster their odds change in relation to the different streams available for the game that you are watching. This is very important because sometimes you can watch streams that are faster than the streams that are providing info for the sites. Of course that this means that you can take advantage and bet on crucial times before the odds change, giving you guaranteed profit. However I advise you to do this with caution and with smaller amounts, because betting sites are alert to these kinds of situations can can limit your account if you overuse it.
When to bet
If you watch professional csgo matches you can notice that csgo can be very unpredictable at times. Of course that teams with better players have advantage over the others, but sometimes one round is enough to make a difference in a entire match. Like in soccer and other sports, upsets occur on a regular basis, but this is even more noticeable in csgo. Statistically a team that wins both pistols rounds have 80% chances of winning the map. Pistol rounds are a lot more skill based because you don’t have a lot of grenades to play with. This results in pistol rounds being somewhat random, since all professional players have a lot of skill.
You can see that pistols rounds are two of the most crucial moments during the map. It’s also on these moments that odds change the most in a match. Imagine that you are betting in a 50/50 match. The odds of both teams are closer to 2 before the first pistol, but after this round they will be like 1.5/3 to the teams.
These rounds are very important because the team who wins a pistol round is going to play against a force buy on the second round, and a full eco on the third round, most of the time. The losing team will only be able to buy on the 4th round, unless they are Terrorists and have planted the bomb in the previous rounds. If they also lose their buy round they will also have to eco on a following round, and by this time they are mostly like to be losing 5-0 already.
Also take in consideration in what side the teams are. If the team that wins the pistol round is on the Terrorist side of a map like Nuke or Train then they have a pretty good chance of winning the map, because they are traditionally the worst maps to play on the Terrorist side.
Buy rounds are also very important in the game, and are normally the closest rounds in the maps. Normally a team can only do 2 or 3 buy rounds in a row without winning before they eco. Betting before a buy-round that can give you acess to eco rounds are a good strategy. However make sure that the team that you had bet on have money to buy on the next round in case of losing, otherwise you can face a difficult situation. A good strategy to bet in these rounds is to wait until one of the teams has a good numerical advantage. Many times a team has an advantage of 1 or 2 players and the odds still didn’t changed because the round is not over, and of course that the team with more players alive has a greater chance of taking the round.
Be alert to the economy of the teams
I would say that this is one of the most crucial factors during a csgo match. Basically it would be very hard to win a map if the economy of a team would be completely destroyed multiple times. Without money the players can’t buy good weapons, and facing good opponents with good weapons only with glocks or USP’s is really really difficult. By now you should be familiar with this, since you have been playing the game for a long time. But maybe you didn’t realized how important it is for you to always stay in the side of the team who has the better economy.
The economy is built around losing the least players possible and securing the rounds. Imagine that the team who wins the first pistol round secure the second and third rounds without losing players. This happens sometimes, and the losing team will have a very hard time because they will have to win the next two or three rounds in order to break the economy of the other team. However if they lose one of these buy rounds they will be forced to eco again, or force buy at max, making it really difficult to win a lot of rounds on that half.
Always make sure that you know how many money the team has, if they save guns, if the losing team save important guns and so on. Per example, saving an awp on a lost round could really impact the next round if the awper can get 1 or 2 entry kills. The odds will swing a lot in these situations since it was supposed to be a somewhat “safer” round.
Betting on teams with “momentum”
Momentum is a concept that is related to the team mentality. Basically a team gains momentum whenever the team is on a hot streak, resulting in the players confidence to rise a lot. Teams with a very good momentum are hard to play against, especially if the other team lost some rounds with basic mistakes or similar things. Keep in mind that sometimes the momentum leads some players to be a lot more aggressive in their playing and sometimes that could be prejudicial to the team. You have to analyze the situation and judge if you think that this could affect the outcome of the next rounds or not. Some teams are better under pressure and some teams choke under pressure.
Identify crucial rounds within the match
This can be related to the momentum of a team. Like I said sometimes teams lose important rounds by their own mistakes. Losing 1v3 or 1v4 situations, team kills, bad smokes or missing easy kills can contribute to really impact the players mentality and some teams really can’t handle it in a short period of time. We all have seen huge comebacks in a map due to certain rounds being lost for stupid mistakes. Usually, if this occur in the first map on a best of three game the team that have lost will have a bad time playing the first rounds of the second map. Also, if the second map also is very close that can get in the head of the players because they will think that they should have won the first map, instead of behind on the verge of losing.
Watch the body language
You can watch the body language of the players to judge if this can impact the team on the following rounds. Usually players that seem nervous after dying and that look beat down won’t play at their best because they will tilt. Tilting keeps a player from focusing on their game and that will result in a drop of performance. So, in these cases it’s best to bet on the team that is rising, because usually the odds only contemplate statistics and not the current state of mind of the teams.
I have talked about betting on teams, but that doesn’t mean that you can only bet once in a team. Actually you could bet with profit in almost every round and get your money back instantaneously. If you know the concept of trading in stock markets than you can also apply it to any sports match. Basically trading is trying to buy and sell something for a short period of time, taking profit on the way.
Imagine that you are watching a game between two teams and the odds are 2.2/1.8. The underdog is almost winning the pistol round and then you bet on them. They win the round and the odds change to 1.7/2.3. Now you can bet the same amount of money on the team that is losing and by now you would have bets on both teams with odds superior to 2. As you can imagine this means that you would have profit no matter what team ends up winning the game. It feels really good to win money by betting on a team that ends up losing, believe me. It means that you were smart enough to understand when it was right to bet on each team.
Cashout your bets if you are winning
Some betting sites provides a “cashout” option, which is basically identical to what I described above. If you make a bet on a team that wins a round the odds will drop and you can cashout your bet instantaneously with profit, getting your money and assuring you no risks for the rest of the match, even if the team that you had bet on lose the game. This is a system that can be much more consistent than the traditional “punter” betting, which is just betting on one of the teams prior to the match and just wait for the outcome. However this method requires that you are focused on the game and on the odds the whole match, in order for you to identify the best situations for making trades.
You can make hundreds of trades during a single match in various markets. I prefer to bet on teams winning individual maps instead of betting on the winner team of a best of three match. Betting in the winner of each map gives you more opportunities to bet afterwards on the other maps without being committed to your previous bets.
Cashout your bets if you are losing
Until now I just talked about making bets with profit. Please be aware that you will obviously have some losses along the way too, or “reds” as we call them on the trading world. These losses can occur in various situations: overconfidence on your part, lack of study, or simply because your team lost a situation that they should have won. After the round is over you have to evaluate if your team is in a good situation to win the following round in order for you to get back to profit.
If your team is faced with a weak buy or a position where they can lose their economy you should consider cashing out your bet with a red. That obviously means that you won’t be able to cashout all the money that you have put on the bet, but you can cashout and bet on the opposite team if you see that that is a favorable situation, getting some profit to cover your previous loss.
Don’t be alarmed when this occurs. If you do a lot of trades on the same match it would be very hard to get “greens” in all of your trades. Just re-evaluate your position and see if you still trust in your bet or if you want to cashout and bet on the other team.
How the odds change during the match
You can be thinking by now that the odds change in a gradually way along the rounds. That is really not true. In soccer matches for example you can see that the odd of the winning team drops along with the time in a consistent way. Per example, a team is winning since the 70th minute. Their odds will drop to a value of 1.2, then drop to 1.19 and 1.18 after a few minutes, until it drops to 1.01 on the final moments of the match, if there are no more goals in the match. In this case you can see that the only events that can change the course of the odds are goals, red cards and of course time.
However in csgo that is different. Almost every round brings major changes to the odds. So the odds won’t drop from 1.4 to 1.3 and so on if there’s 4 rounds left to end the match. Basically what will happen is that if a team is winning 12-10 and their odd is 1.4 this value could even drop to 1.1 in just one round if the other team would have to do a double eco in the next two rounds. So imagine that the team wins the round making it 13-10 and the other team would have to eco twice. The odds will drop to 1.1 or close to that. In the next round they won’t probably drop even if the favorite team wins it, since it’s expected that against a full eco the team will win the round.
Opportunities created by the uneven change of the odds
This can open a good opportunity for you to bet on the underdog if somehow they can get some kills and be on a 5v3 or a similar situation. Now the round would be very close, you will still be able to bet before the odd changes and even if the underdog happens to lose the round anyway you won’t lose a lot of money, because the odd wasn’t supposed to drop very much. On the other way, if the underdog really manages to secure the round the game would be 13-11, being very close, and the odds will suddenly rise a lot, maybe to 1.4/3.2 or 1.5/3, giving you a lot of profit.
Other examples can be seen in the pistol rounds. A team wins the pistol and the odds change a lot in their favor, because they are supposed to win the next two rounds. However if the other team wins the second round the odds will turn around in the favor of the new team. Sometimes they can even change from 1.5/3 to like 2.3/1.7. In just one round you can win more than 50% of the money you have put into the bet if you bet on the right team.
Betting on Betfair
If you have Betfair available in your country you are lucky. Betfair is the site where you will encounter the best odds, because in this site the odds are determined by the amount of bets that people put on each team, and are not determined by the site itself. Of course that Betfair takes a comission on your winnings (5%), but this is by far better than what you would lose on the difference of the odds on the other sites.
One of the other advantages of Betfair is that you have multiple trading softwares that can work with this site, like Geeks Toy, making possible to you to watch if the odds tend to go up or down in real time. Basically you can watch the amount of money that exists at a determined odd and if that money is being corresponded the odd will drop. You can take that to your advantage and see how the odds change along the match, exploiting all the opportunities that you see to place bets with maximized odds.
This is more oriented to advanced traders and if you don’t understood the basic principle that I described you should see a lot of tutorials on youtube. They are mostly orientated to soccer and other sports, but you can translate the same techniques to csgo with no problems.
Betting on teams that you are a fan of
Usually all traders say that you must avoid betting on your favorite teams, at least when you are new to trading. This is due to the fact that if we are rooting for a team we tend to not see all the negative factors of our team and always think that they can recover. This will make you lose a lot of bets in the long run and usually it takes some time for traders to be able to bet on these matches only with the analytical aspect of things. In csgo is especially crucial that you be able to bet on your favorite teams with rationality, since there aren’t that many professional teams and betting in unknown teams is a huge gamble.
Study your winnings and your losses
It is really a good idea to always write down your major trades and what profit or losses you have had on them. Some people have a mentality that leads them to believe that they don’t need to really study why they won in a particular game. Usually people tend to remember the losses a lot and not the winnings, because it’s really easy to associate that if you won money it was because you knew that the team will simply win on those situations.
In my opinion is just as much crucial to study your winnings as it is crucial to study your losses. Try to see patterns within your bets indicating what were the situations that you have taken advantage of the most. Understanding those situations will make you bet on similar moments in the future. Also, understanding what are the situations which are causing you the most losses will make you to stay way from those situations as much as possible.
Don’t be overconfident
Winning a lot in a short amount of time is obviously great. However that could lead you to be overconfident and make mistakes. Don’t make bets without thinking what could be the positive and negative outcomes of the bets. Always follow your rules of bankroll management and don’t bet stupid amounts on a team that has really low odds just because you are 100% sure they will win. In csgo there’s never 100% chances of nothing. Any sports player can make mistakes, we are human after all. Just be happy to win small amounts each time instead of being happy for winning a huge bet. Huge bets will make you take more risks, and trading is essentially trying to win the most amount with the less possible risk.
You will make mistakes along the way. Just try to learn from them instead of blaming it all on your bad luck. Sometimes it really was just a bad luck moment, but many times it was just an unnecessary risk to make some bets.
Don’t bet if the losses start to affect you
It will happen sometimes that you will lose money in 4,5 or more bets in a row. That could be complicated for you. If you follow the bankroll management rules that we described on our CS GO Betting Guide you will have no problems regarding losing your whole bankroll. However your concentration could be really affected and people tend to tilt, just like players. When the players tilt they miss shots, but when we tilt we tend to bet without thinking properly.
If you realize that you are becoming affected by the losses just take some time off. Let the match go on it’s course and do something else. Think about the errors you have committed and figure out how to avoid them. Tilt betting can really affect your bankroll since most people try to just win their money back in a fast way when they lost. That never works well.
In summary, just try to watch how the odds change during 4 or 5 matches before you place live bets. This will get you used to various common situations and you will probably see the rounds where you can profit the most.
Live betting is just a matter of study and practice. Always take notes when you place bets that makes you losses and try to understand if your bet would be profitable in the long run or not.