Trade Up Contracts in CSGO
If you have any CSGO skins you have probably noticed by now that they come in various rarity degrees.
Taking a look at the Glove Case collection we can see that the skins names are highlighted in blue, purple, pink, red and yellow. What does this means? The blue skins are the most common and that means they will probably be the most inexpensive ones, while the red skins are rarer and most likely to be the expensive ones from the case. The yellow items, as you can see by the fact that steam emphasizes “exceedingly rare”, are the rarest and the most sought after, typically being knives that come in various finishes.
But what does this have to do with trade up contracts? Well, everything. A trade up contract is a function that you can access while in-game in which you can place 10 skins of one variety (10 blue skins for example) and randomly get a skin of the variety of the next rarity (in this case a purple one).
What type of skins can I get from Trade Up Contracts?
As you already know there are a lot of weapon collections already in CSGO. However if you do a trade up contract you can only get a skin from the same collection(s) of the skins you have put on the contract. This means that if you have 10 Famas Mecha Industries (of the glove collection) you can get either a SSG 08 Dragonfire or a M4A4 Buzz Kill, but if you make a trade up contract based on skins from different collections you can pretty much obtain a random skin from all the selected collections. It’s important to know that you can’t get yellow items from trade ups and neither souvenir skins.
The advantages of Trade Up Contracts
Trade up contracts can be pretty risky, but can also give you great profit if you like to gamble. It’s important for you to know that by now trade up contracts were overused, and that resulted in them not being profitable in the long run 99% of the time. So you can’t just get skins from the steam market and do trade-ups 100% profitable every time until you are rich because normally the cost of 10 common skins is superior to the cost of the skin you could get.
Does that means that trade ups are not worth it at all? No. Sometimes you just have a bunch of low value skins that you won from drops or bets or you have a full inventory and you want some skins from the collections of your guns.
Would it be wiser to sell the skins you already have and buy the skins you want on the market? Probably, but if you have a lot of 0,03 dollars skins you will end up trying to sell them on the market for 4 or 5 months, like what used to happen to me, because almost no one likes those skins. So it’s better for you to just do a trade up when you have 10 of these and you might end up with a 0,10 dollar skin that you could sell on the market right way, or even keep it if you like.
If you have a bunch of 0,2 to 0,5 dollars skins that you really don’t use and can’t deposit on some of the betting sites then a trade up is also a good option. Selling those skins on the steam market will make you lose 10% or more of their value, and in some collections this is almost the same value you would lose if you get the worst skin you could get on the trade up. In these cases you can try to trade them and hope to get lucky, and who knows, you can get the most valuable skin also! Remember that in the majority of the cases you can get more than one skin, and at least one of them is always profitable.
However the best reason to do a trade up contract is if you really want a specific skin with a pattern or a low or high float value. Many people try various forms of trade up contracts in order to get Case Hardened skins, especially the AK-47 Case Hardened. If you don’t know, some of the patterns of these skins are worth thousands of dollars, so imagine the profit you could get if you get one of these! Other popular trade up contracts include trading up to get a M4A4 Radiation Hazard, MP7 Whiteout, P250 and Tec-9 Nuclear Treat, AK-47 Black Laminate and other skins which are very rare in Factory New condition.
How to do a trade up contract
It’s pretty easy to do a trade up contract. You just have to go to your inventory while in-game and you will notice that you have a trade up contract item. If you right-click it, it will open and show you all of your skins. Then you just have to select one of them, and your contract will be restringed to skins of the same rarity of the one you selected.
After you have selected the 10 skins you want to trade just click “Proceed”. You can then enter your signature, or simply wait and click “Submit”. Don’t forget to pray to the gods, and hope for the best!
The Collection effect in trade up contracts
Like I said before the collection of the skins you have used in the contract will determine the collection of the skin that you will get. But in what way? It’s very simple really; imagine that you do a contract based on skins from 10 different collections. You will get a 10% chance of getting a skin of one of those collections.
If you have 5 skins from one collection and another 5 skins from another collection you will get a 50% chance of getting a skin from either one of the collections. Also have in mind that in a collection you can get more than one skin most of the time, so you have to split the percentages of getting a specific item. Imagine that you used skins from 2 collections and in each of the collections you can get 2 different skins. Than you would have a 25% chance of getting a specific skin.
In order to check csgo skins collections and the price of the skins you can use various sites, like CSGOStash.com , which is faster to use than searching on the market for all the csgo cases.
Trade Up Contracts simulators
By now this can seem a little confusing to some people, especially to the ones that have never seen anyone do a trade up contract. But that’s why the Internet is amazing; there already are some trade up contract simulators out there which can show you the odds of getting a specific skin. One of the most common is Convars.com
Another one is TradeUpGuru.com which is a lot more complete regarding the condition of the skins and their float values, a factor that we will talk about next.
I highly recommend you to simulate the trade up you will be doing. It’s always nice to be sure of what we are doing before spending the money and just regret when we miss a factor.
The skin condition effect in trade up contracts
You already know that if you use different skin collections you can get skins from all of them. This is also applied to the condition of the skins. If you trade up 10 Factory New skins you will get a Factory New skin, while if you use only one Factory New skin you will get a Factory New skin 10% of the time, two Factory New skins will get you a 20% chance, and so on. However, some skins like the Asiimov don’t have Factory New versions. In this case you will get a Minimal Wear skin. There are more exceptions to this as we are going to show you in the next topic.
Along with the condition you can use Stattrak skins in the trade up contracts, and the odds of you getting a Stattrak skin will vary in the exact same way that I already mentioned above for the condition type.
The Float Value effect in trade up contracts
If you are familiar with the float value of a skin you know that this is what determines the look of a specific skin. The lower the float the cleanest the skin will look like, so that’s what you want to have most of the times. In a trade up contract the float value of the skin that you will get is also determined by the float value of the skins that you have used. However some skins have a restringed Float Value, like the M4A4 Radiation Hazard.
As you can see the Float Value of this skin ranges from 0.06 to 0.8 meaning that the float value of this skin has to be between 0.06 and 0.07 in order to be a Factory New one. This has a incredible low chance of happening, and that’s why the price difference between a Minimal Wear and a Factory New one is so huge. So in this case you can’t always get a Factory New Radiation Hazard by simply using 10 Factory New skins. The fact that the range of a Factory New of one of these skins is only 0.01 means that you will have to enter a lot of 0.01 or lower float value skins on your trade up, and that could be very costly. If you use “normal” float value Factory New skins you will probably end up with a Minimal Wear Radiation Hazard.
Profiting from trade up contracts
As I mentioned earlier, in the long run the trade up contracts are not profitable 99% of the times. But what about the other 1%? The steam market is very stable, so the skins value remains fairly constant over time. However during the steam sales or when a new case comes out you can notice that all skins tend to drop in price, due to people trying to sell their skins to buy games, the new cases or keys.
During these moments the skins price are irregular and you can get skins a lot cheaper than their normal price. At the same time some of the skins of the same collection of the ones you just bought don’t drop that much in price, making the trade up of those skins to be profitable. This is hard to analyse and will take you a lot of effort, but you can use the same principle on newer skins.
When new skins just come out, there’s usually one or two very desirable skins. Imagine that a new sick AK-47 skin comes out and the first ones are selling for 200 dollars. Some of the common skins of that collection will be sold very fast, and the first people to sell them on the market don’t know what price to sell them for, sometimes making you a opportunity to buy them cheaper than 10 dollars a piece, making you a theorectical profit of 100 dollars.
Of course these strategies are applied only on the moment and you really can’t predict when the skin prices will be favorable for you, but you can definatly profit if you remain alert.
Strategies for good trade ups
There are various different strategies that you can use in order to reduce the risk in your trade ups, whether you are a high-tier trader or just a regular player with some low value skins. Remember, never trade up skins with valuable stickers on it because you will lose the stickers, and always try to get the skins you will use for market price, even if they are low float ones.
Case Hardened Trade Ups
This type of trade ups are usually for high-tier traders. Low tier traders can also do these, but the chance of getting a good pattern case hardened skin is pretty slim, and you probably won’t afford many trade ups, since there’s a pretty good chance of you not getting profit. The goal is obviously to get a blue gem AK-47 or Five-Seven, or at least a skin with a pattern that is worth a good amount over market price.
In the case of the AK-47 you should use the M4A1-S Dark Water Minimal Wear, or the Glock Dragon Tattoo if you want a Factory New AK-47, since the Dark Water only comes in Minimal Wear or Field-Tested. The downside is that the Dragon Tattoo is also more expensive. Then you can add skins from other collections in order for you to lower the price of the trade up. Keep in mind that this obviously will also lower your chances of getting the AK-47. In this case I will advise you to use the Nova Koi, since it’s the most inexpensive purple on the market.
For the Five-Seven Case Hardened use the Famas Hexane and if you want use the most inexpensive blue skins on the market at the moment of your trade up. Also keep in mind that float value is important on case hardeneds too, because low float blue gems will look a lot more shiny than high float ones, and the overpay you will get will vary along too.
Trade Ups for Expensive Skins
One of the most common is trying to get the AK-47 Fire Serpent. For this you will need to use the P2000 Ocean Foam and if you want skins from other collections my advice is for you to use the Famas Afterimage, which is the most inexpensive pink on the market. A good way for you to try to get a jackpot is to use only one P2000 and 9 Famas, which means you would get the Fire Serpent only 10% of the times but you would spend only around 50 dollars to do so.
Smaller Trade Ups
For people with low tier inventories you can try a lot of different trade ups like the jackpot trade up I mentioned in the last topic. For more conservative players you can try the next trade up, for example.
If you use 5 Famas Djin and 5 SSG 08 Big Iron you can get the USP-S Kill Confirmed, the M4A1-S Golden Coil, the M4A1-S Hyper Beast and the Mac-10 Neon Rider. This is a trade up with a lot of desirable skins, and the only one where you can really lose a lot is if you get the Mac-10. So you will have a 75% chance of getting a very good skin, and if you get the USP-S Kill Confirmed you will make a lot of profit.
These are the basis of what you need to know in order to do your trade up contracts. Just try to be creative and have fun doing your trade ups, no one gets lucky without trying.